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:: CLIMATIC FUTUROLOGY
Fernando Penteado Cardoso - CLIMATIC FUTUROLOGY - agrisus@agrisus.org.br

It’s summertime in the southern hemisphere. South of the equator the earth is warmer because it is closer to the sun.

The Earth’s rotation causes part of the world to glide under the large moist gaseous mass enriched by the evaporation of the equatorial Atlantic Ocean. The basin of the River Maximum places itself below the extensive moisture rich air cap. Held down by inertial forces, the atmospheric layer moves slower than the gravitational westward surface speed, creating the predominantly eastward trade winds.

It rains heavily after air circulation and saturation. After falling on the earth and filling up the aquifers, the largest portion of ocean originated moisture returns to the sea in fast-flowing rivers. The air remains saturated after the evaporation from wet soil areas, as well as from flooded regions and from transpiration of original, secondary or introduced plant leaves. It rains again after such intensive recycling.

Moisture-laden hot air moving westward meets the Andes barrier parallel to the high pressure “bubble” over the cooler Pacific Ocean coast water.

Such obstacles and the earth’s rotation cause the immense humid gaseous mass to deflect anti-clockwise and to proceed south-bound, where low and high pressure areas alternate in pulsating intervals. The hydrated northwest wind progresses easily after its long voyage that started much further North in the warm equatorial Atlantic Ocean.

Then it starts raining over the region close to the tropics, after moist air recycling and local convection, and merges with successive southeasterly cold fronts, which come forward and dissipate. When this coalescing region remains stationary, continuous heavy rains may take place causing occasional flooding. Rain water continues to replenish the water table and returns to the sea from whence it came.

The current global warming period, - the stated consequence of increasing concentration of carbon gas, - either linked to oxygen or to hydrogen, - may intensify the process. More heat, more evaporation from the warmer ocean, more air moisture, more rains along the lengthy route of the moisture-loaded clouds as they migrate.

No change of the earth’s rotation is predicted. The Amazon region will continue to glide under an immense convex cover of hot, humid air from the Atlantic Ocean. The equator rain surplus will go on precipitating over the tropics.

There is no reason to predict catastrophic events, much less the end of the world. Additional heat, more rain and more carbonated gas are good for the plants. They intensify forest growth, and they will sustain our vigorous plant-animal industry.

*Sênior Agronomist, President of Fundação Agrisus- Agricultura Sustentável- S.Paulo, 12.28.2006
Author translation.



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